June 2021 Visa Bulletin Analysis for EB2 and EB3 India

June Visa Bulletin is available now. 

Final Action Dates: [1]

EB2 India - 01 DEC 10

EB3 India - 01 NOV 11

USCIS decided not to use the filing dates in June 2021 Visa Bulletin.  So, 

Filing Dates: [2]

EB2 India - 01 DEC 10

EB3 India - 01 NOV 11

Typically, we can estimate 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) to be given every year under Employment Based Green Card category. This fiscal year (FY 2021) -- between 1 October 2020 and 30 September 2021 -- the estimate is 262,000 according to the Annual Numerical lists provided. [3] 

In FY 2019, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 2,908 and EB3 India was 5,048. In FY 2020, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 2,599 and EB3 India was 3,174. These numbers confirmed the significant reduction of spillover for EB2 India category. [4]

According to latest inventory we have, as of July 2018, for EB3 India, there is no data for 2010. For EB2 India, there are 10,727 I-485 applications pending between 01 JUL 09 and 30 APR 2010. [5]

Predictions:

The USCIS decided to use the Final Action Dates as filing dates for Jan 2021. That continues from Feb 2021 Visa Bulletin and is expected to continue this Fiscal Year till Sept 2021 Visa Bulletin.

The dates have moved 4 months for EB2 India and 9 months for EB3 India. Hopefully, it will keep moving at this rate till Sept Visa Bulletin.

Mr. Charles Oppenheim has been hosting "Chats with Charlie" on Youtube Live. You can see videos here - https://www.youtube.com/user/TravelGov/videos - Couple of interesting points this time:

1. He mentioned that all the Employment Based numbers (262,000) might not be used this Fiscal Year because of processing delays due to COVID.

2. He is expecting the FY 2022 Employment Based limit to be 290,000 because of non-usage from Family Based this Fiscal Year.

Next Steps:

EB3 India dates are still favorable than EB2 India dates. You should talk to your immigration lawyer, if "downgrading" from EB2 to EB3 is an option for you.

Meanwhile,  if you are waiting for your date to become current, there are some things that you can prepare yourself before your priority date becomes current. Two items that typically take longer are getting an official birth certificate for all I-485 applicants and Marriage Certificate, if relevant. Along with that, you can talk to your immigration lawyer and see if you need an affidavit for these certificates. If yes, you can get a format for that and prepare that as well.

Data Sources:

[1] June 2021 Visa Bulletin -- https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-june-2021.html

[2] Visa Bulletin information from USCIS -- https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

[3] Annual Numerical Limits - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WEB_Annual_Numerical_Limits-FY2021.pdf

[4] EB2 and EB3 Numbers are taken from -- Page 9 - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2020AnnualReport/FY20AnnualReport-TableV.pdf

[5] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.aila.org/infonet/processing-time-reports/eb-i-485-inventory/uscis-i-485-employment-inventory-statistics-7-1-18

[6] EB petitions waiting visa final Priority Dates -- https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/USCIS_FOIA_EB_backlog.pdf

May 2021 Visa Bulletin and Analysis for EB2 and EB3 India

May Visa Bulletin is available now. 

Final Action Dates: [1]

EB2 India - 01 AUG 10

EB3 India - 01 FEB 11

USCIS decided not to use the filing dates in May 2021 Visa Bulletin.  So, 

Filing Dates: [2]

EB2 India - 01 AUG 10

EB3 India - 01 FEB 11 

Typically, we can estimate 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) to be given every year under Employment Based Green Card category. This fiscal year (FY 2021) -- between 1 October 2020 and 30 September 2021 -- the estimate is 262,000 according to the Annual Numerical lists provided. [3] 

In FY 2019, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 2,908 and EB3 India was 5,048. In FY 2020, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 2,599 and EB3 India was 3,174. These numbers confirmed the significant reduction of spillover for EB2 India category. [4]

According to latest inventory we have, as of July 2018, for EB3 India, there is no data for 2010. For EB2 India, there are 10,727 I-485 applications pending between 01 JUL 09 and 30 APR 2010. [5]

Predictions:

The USCIS decided to use the Final Action Dates as filing dates for Jan 2021. That continues from Feb, 2021 Visa Bulletin and is expected to continue this Fiscal Year till Sept 2021 Visa Bulletin.

Expectation was that the dates would start moving from June. But, looks like DOS is moving the dates earlier. This brings good news for many that the dates have moved 3 months for EB2 India and 5 months for EB3 India. Hopefully, it will keep moving at this rate till Sept Visa Bulletin.

You can check out our predictions for this fiscal year in the previous post.

Mr. Charles Oppenheim has been kind to host May Visa Bulletin questions on Youtube Live. In summary, he is expecting final action dates to reach 15 MAY 11 for EB2 India and 01 JAN 15 for EB3 India by September 2021 Visa Bulletin (October 2020 Visa Bulletin filing action dates). He says EB1 to EB2 to spillover is already happening. He also said the dates will move atleast 3 months for EB2 India and 5 months for EB3 India for June 2021 Visa Bulletin. He mentioned, he might have to slow down the space in July Visa Bulletin based on numbers and EB2 to EB3 downgrade. You can see the full interview here - https://www.youtube.com/user/TravelGov/videos

Next Steps:

EB3 India dates are still favorable than EB2 India dates. You should talk to your immigration lawyer, if "downgrading" from EB2 to EB3 is an option for you.

Meanwhile,  if you are waiting for your date to become current, there are some things that you can prepare yourself before your priority date becomes current. Two items that typically take longer are getting an official birth certificate for all I-485 applicants and Marriage Certificate, if relevant. Along with that, you can talk to your immigration lawyer and see if you need an affidavit for these certificates. If yes, you can get a format for that and prepare that as well.

Data Sources:

[1] May 2021 Visa Bulletin -- https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-may-2021.html

[2] Visa Bulletin information from USCIS -- https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

[3] Annual Numerical Limits - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WEB_Annual_Numerical_Limits-FY2021.pdf

[4] EB2 and EB3 Numbers are taken from -- Page 9 - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2020AnnualReport/FY20AnnualReport-TableV.pdf

[5] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.aila.org/infonet/processing-time-reports/eb-i-485-inventory/uscis-i-485-employment-inventory-statistics-7-1-18

[6] EB petitions waiting visa final Priority Dates -- https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/USCIS_FOIA_EB_backlog.pdf

EB2 India and EB3 India - how far will the dates move ?

Common question is how far will the dates move by September 2021 Visa Bulletin ?

Typically, we can estimate 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) to be given every year under Employment Based Green Card category. This fiscal year (FY 2021) -- between 1 October 2020 and 30 September 2021 -- the estimate is 262,000 according to the Annual Numerical lists provided. [3] 

EB2 India:

EB2 India date was 08 JUL 09 according to September 2020 Visa Bulletin dates in data source [1].

According to latest inventory we have, as of July 2018 , for EB2 India, there are 6,050 I-485 applications pending between 01 JUL 09 and 31 DEC 2009. [5]

According to I-140 approved petitions list [7],  For EB2 India:

  FY 2009 -  6,674 

  FY 2010 - 15,313 

  FY 2011 - 22,286

Assuming these numbers are correct and there is no porting between EB2 to EB3 for FY 2009 and 2010 priority dates, there are 6,050 (according to I-485 inventory data) + 15, 313 (according to I-140 data) + 15, 313 (assuming one dependent per I-140 applicant) = 36,676 Immigrant Visas are needed for EB2 India to move to 01 JAN 2011.

According to FY 2021 annual numerical limits link in [3], 74,932 will be given for EB2 and in that 5,245 is guaranteed for EB2 India. In FY 2020, the number of green cards given for EB2 was 43,127 in that EB2 India was 2,599, according to link in [4]. Hence, all other countries in EB2 got 43,127 - 2,599 = 40,528. Assuming same is true for this year, 74,932 - 40, 528 = 34,404 will be the spill over number for EB2 India.

EB3 India:

EB3 India date was 01 OCT 09 according to September 2020 Visa Bulletin dates in data source [1].

According to I-140 approved petitions list [7],  For EB3 India:

  FY 2009 -  4,422 

  FY 2010 - 6,682 

  FY 2011 - 6,929

  FY 2012 - 4,110

Assuming these numbers are correct and there is no porting between EB2 to EB3, (4,422 / 4) + 6,682 + 6,929 + 4,110 (according to I-140 data) + (4,422 / 4) + 6,682 + 6,929 + 4,110 (assuming one dependent per I-140 applicant) = 37,653 Immigrant Visas are needed for EB3 India to move to 01 JAN 2013.

According to FY 2021 annual numerical limits link in [3], 74,932 will be given for EB3 and in that 5,245 is guaranteed for EB3 India. In FY 2020, the number of green cards given for EB3 was 42,821 in that EB3 India was 3,174, according to link in [4]. Hence, all other countries in EB3 got 42,821 - 3,174 = 39,647. Assuming same is true for this year, 74,932 - 39,647 = 35,285 will be the spill over number for EB3 India.

Unknown:

The data that we don't have is EB2 to EB3 "downgrades" and EB3 to EB2 "upgrades". If we have that, we can estimate the numbers better. Another big unknown is the spill over, we have given one possible scenario above. The actual number will depend on the number of applicants from other countries (ROW).

Data Sources:

[1] September 2020 Visa Bulletin -- https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2020/visa-bulletin-for-september-2020.html

[2] Visa Bulletin information from USCIS -- https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

[3] Annual Numerical Limits - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WEB_Annual_Numerical_Limits-FY2021.pdf

[4] EB2 and EB3 Numbers are taken from -- Page 9 - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2020AnnualReport/FY20AnnualReport-TableV.pdf

[5] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.aila.org/infonet/processing-time-reports/eb-i-485-inventory/uscis-i-485-employment-inventory-statistics-7-1-18

[6] EB petitions waiting visa final Priority Dates -- https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/USCIS_FOIA_EB_backlog.pdf

[7] I-140 Approval petitions - https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/I140_by_class_country_FY09_19.pdf

April 2021 Visa Bulletin and Analysis for EB2 and EB3 India

April Visa Bulletin is available now. 

Final Action Dates: [1]

EB2 India - 01 MAY 10

EB3 India - 01 SEP 10

USCIS decided not to use the filing dates in April 2021 Visa Bulletin.  So, 

Filing Dates: [2]

EB2 India - 01 MAY 10

EB3 India - 01 SEP 10 

Typically, we can estimate 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) to be given every year under Employment Based Green Card category. This fiscal year (FY 2021) -- between 1 October 2020 and 30 September 2021 -- the estimate is 262,000 according to the Annual Numerical lists provided. [3] 

In FY 2019, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 2,908 and EB3 India was 5,048. In FY 2020, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 2,599 and EB3 India was 3,174. These numbers confirmed the significant reduction of spillover for EB2 India category. [4]

According to latest inventory we have, as of July 2018, for EB3 India, there is no data for 2010. For EB2 India, there are 10,727 I-485 applications pending between 01 JUL 09 and 30 APR 2010. [5]

Predictions:

Official prediction has not been provided in this Visa Bulletin. 

The USCIS decided to use the Final Action Dates as filing dates for Jan 2021. That continues in Feb, Mar, Apr and is expected to continue this Fiscal Year till Sept 2021 Visa Bulletin.

Expectation was that the dates would start moving from June. But, looks like DOS is moving the dates earlier. This brings good news for many that the dates have moved more than months each for EB2 and EB3. Hopefully, it will keep moving at this rate till Sept Visa Bulletin.

Next Steps:

EB3 India dates are still favorable than EB2 India dates. You should talk to your immigration lawyer, if "downgrading" from EB2 to EB3 is an option for you.

Meanwhile,  if you are waiting for your date to become current, there are some things that you can prepare yourself before your priority date becomes current. Two items that typically take longer are getting an official birth certificate for all I-485 applicants and Marriage Certificate, if relevant. Along with that, you can talk to your immigration lawyer and see if you need an affidavit for these certificates. If yes, you can get a format for that and prepare that as well.

Data Sources:

[1] April 2021 Visa Bulletin -- https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-april-2021.html

[2] Visa Bulletin information from USCIS -- https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

[3] Annual Numerical Limits - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WEB_Annual_Numerical_Limits-FY2021.pdf

[4] EB2 and EB3 Numbers are taken from -- Page 9 - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2020AnnualReport/FY20AnnualReport-TableV.pdf

[5] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.aila.org/infonet/processing-time-reports/eb-i-485-inventory/uscis-i-485-employment-inventory-statistics-7-1-18

[6] EB petitions waiting visa final Priority Dates -- https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/USCIS_FOIA_EB_backlog.pdf

March 2021 Visa Bulletin and Analysis for EB2 and EB3 India

March Visa Bulletin was released today. 

Final Action Dates: [1]

EB2 India - 15 JAN 10

EB3 India - 01 JUL 10

USCIS decided not to use the filing dates in March 2021 Visa Bulletin.  So, 

Filing Dates: [2]

EB2 India - 15 JAN 10

EB3 India - 01 JUL 10

Typically, we can estimate 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) to be given every year under Employment Based Green Card category. This fiscal year (FY 2021) -- between 1 October 2020 and 30 September 2021 -- the estimate is 262,000 according to the Annual Numerical lists provided. [3] 

In FY 2019, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 2,908 and EB3 India was 5,048. These numbers confirmed the significant reduction of spillover for EB2 India category. [4]

According to latest inventory we have, as of July 2018, for EB3 India, there is no data for 2010. For EB2 India, there are 6050 I-485 applications pending for July to December of 2009. [5]

Predictions:

Official prediction has not been provided in this Visa Bulletin. But, the last Visa bulletin said EB2 India can move up to two weeks and EB3 India can move up to three weeks.

The USCIS decided to use the Final Action Dates as filing dates for Jan 2021. That continues in Feb, Mar and is expected to continue this Fiscal Year till Sept 2021 Visa Bulletin.

Expectation was that the dates would start moving from June. But, looks like DOS is moving the dates earlier. This brings good news for many that the dates have moved 3 months each for EB2 and EB3. Hopefully, it will keep moving at this rate for Apr to Sept Visa Bulletins.

Next Steps:

EB3 India dates are still favorable than EB2 India dates. You should talk to your immigration lawyer, if "downgrading" from EB2 to EB3 is an option for you.

Meanwhile,  if you are waiting for your date to become current, there are some things that you can prepare yourself before your priority date becomes current. Two items that typically take longer are getting an official birth certificate for all I-485 applicants and Marriage Certificate, if relevant. Along with that, you can talk to your immigration lawyer and see if you need an affidavit for these certificates. If yes, you can get a format for that and prepare that as well.

Data Sources:

[1] March 2021 Visa Bulletin -- https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-march-2021.html

[2] Visa Bulletin information from USCIS -- https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

[3] Annual Numerical Limits - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WEB_Annual_Numerical_Limits-FY2021.pdf

[4] EB2 and EB3 Numbers are taken from -- Page 9 - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2019AnnualReport/FY19AnnualReport%20-%20TableV.pdf

[5] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.aila.org/infonet/processing-time-reports/eb-i-485-inventory/uscis-i-485-employment-inventory-statistics-7-1-18

[6] EB petitions waiting visa final Priority Dates -- https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/USCIS_FOIA_EB_backlog.pdf

February 2021 Visa Bulletin and Analysis for EB2 and EB3 India

 February 2021 Visa Bulletin was released today. 

Final Action Dates: [1]

EB2 India - 12 OCT 09

EB3 India - 01 APR 10

USCIS decided not to use the filing dates in February 2021 Visa Bulletin.  So, 

Filing Dates: [2]

EB2 India - 12 OCT 09

EB3 India - 01 APR 10

Typically, we can estimate 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) to be given every year under Employment Based Green Card category. This fiscal year (FY 2021) -- between 1 October 2020 and 30 September 2021 -- the estimate is 262,000 according to the Annual Numerical lists provided. [3] 

In FY 2019, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 2,908 and EB3 India was 5,048. These numbers confirmed the significant reduction of spillover for EB2 India category. [4]

According to latest inventory we have, as of July 2018, for EB3 India, there is no data for 2010. For EB2 India, there are 6050 I-485 applications pending for July to December of 2009. [5]

Predictions:

Official prediction has been provided in this Visa bulletin. It says, EB2 India can move up to two weeks and EB3 India can move up to three weeks.

The USCIS decided to use the Final Action Dates as filing dates for Jan 2021. That continues in Feb 2021 and is expected to continue this Fiscal Year till Sept 2021 Visa Bulletin.

Guess is that, at-least the Final action dates will keep moving forward at this rate and then there will be some big movements in last quarter (July, August, September Visa Bulletins).

Next Steps:

EB3 India dates are still favorable than EB2 India dates. You should talk to your immigration lawyer, if "downgrading" from EB2 to EB3 is an option for you.

Meanwhile,  if you are waiting for your date to become current, there are some things that you can prepare yourself before your priority date becomes current. Two items that typically take longer are getting an official birth certificate for all I-485 applicants and Marriage Certificate, if relevant. Along with that, you can talk to your immigration lawyer and see if you need an affidavit for these certificates. If yes, you can get a format for that and prepare that as well.

Data Sources:

[1] February 2021 Visa Bulletin -- https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-february-2021.html

[2] Visa Bulletin information from USCIS -- https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

[3] Annual Numerical Limits - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WEB_Annual_Numerical_Limits-FY2021.pdf

[4] EB2 and EB3 Numbers are taken from -- Page 9 - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2019AnnualReport/FY19AnnualReport%20-%20TableV.pdf

[5] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.aila.org/infonet/processing-time-reports/eb-i-485-inventory/uscis-i-485-employment-inventory-statistics-7-1-18

[6] EB petitions waiting visa final Priority Dates -- https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/USCIS_FOIA_EB_backlog.pdf

January 2021 Visa Bulletin and Analysis for EB2 and EB3 India

January 2021 Visa Bulletin was released today. 

Final Action Dates: [1]

EB2 India - 08 OCT 09

EB3 India - 22 MAR 10

USCIS decided not to use the filing dates in January 2021 Visa Bulletin.  So, 

Filing Dates: [2]

EB2 India - 08 OCT 09

EB3 India - 22 MAR 10

Typically, we can estimate 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) to be given every year under Employment Based Green Card category. This fiscal year (FY 2021) -- between 1 October 2020 and 30 September 2021 -- the estimate is 261,500 according to the October 2020 visa bulletin. 

In FY 2019, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 2,908 and EB3 India was 5,048. These numbers confirmed the significant reduction of spillover for EB2 India category. [3]

According to latest inventory we have, as of July 2018, for EB3 India, there is no data for 2010. For EB2 India, there are 6050 I-485 applications pending for July to December of 2009. [4]

Predictions:

Official prediction is not provided in this Visa bulletin.

As expected, the USCIS decided to use the Final Action Dates as filing dates for Jan 2021.

Guess is that, at-least the Final action dates will keep moving forward at this rate and then there will be some big movements in last quarter (July, August, September Visa Bulletins).

Next Steps:

EB3 India dates are still favorable than EB2 India dates. You should talk to your immigration lawyer, if "downgrading" from EB2 to EB3 is an option for you.

If you are EB2 India priority date is between 08 OCT 09 and 14 MAY 11, and have not filed your I-485, you have another 8 days to file it before the Jan 2021 Visa Bulletin kicks in. Same is true for EB3 India priority dates between 22 MAR 10 and 31 DEC 13.

Meanwhile,  if you are waiting for your date to become current, there are some things that you can prepare yourself before your priority date becomes current. Two items that typically take longer are getting an official birth certificate for all I-485 applicants and Marriage Certificate, if relevant. Along with that, you can talk to your immigration lawyer and see if you need an affidavit for these certificates. If yes, you can get a format for that and prepare that as well.

Data Sources:

[1] January 2021 Visa Bulletin -- https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-january-2021.html

[2] Visa Bulletin information from USCIS -- https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

[3] EB2 and EB3 Numbers are taken from -- Page 9 - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2019AnnualReport/FY19AnnualReport%20-%20TableV.pdf

[4] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.aila.org/infonet/processing-time-reports/eb-i-485-inventory/uscis-i-485-employment-inventory-statistics-7-1-18

[5] EB petitions waiting visa final Priority Dates -- https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/USCIS_FOIA_EB_backlog.pdf