December 2020 Visa Bulletin was released yesterday. Big change is EB3 India filing date moved back one year.
Final Action Dates: [1]
EB2 India - 01 OCT 09
EB3 India - 15 MAR 10
USCIS agreed to use date of filing dates in visa bulletin.
Filing Dates: [2]
EB2 India - 15 MAY 11
EB3 India - 01 JAN 14
Typically, we can estimate 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) to be given every year under Employment Based Green Card category. This fiscal year (FY 2021) -- between 1 October 2020 and 30 September 2021 -- the estimate is 261,500 according to the October 2020 visa bulletin.
In FY 2019, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 2,908 and EB3 India was 5,048. These numbers confirmed the significant reduction of spillover for EB2 India category. [3]
According to latest inventory we have, as of July 2018, for EB3 India, there is no data for 2010. For EB2 India, there are 6050 I-485 applications pending for July to December of 2009. [4]
Predictions:
There are no prediction in this Visa bulletin.
It is a surprise that the EB3 India date retrogressed one year, which tells that they got lot more EB3 India applications than they expected. If they get more EB2 India applications, it might follow the same route.
Guess is that, at least the Final action dates will keep moving forward at this rate and then there will be some big movements in last quarter (July, August, September Visa Bulletins).
Next Steps:
EB3 India dates are still favorable than EB2 India dates. If you are interested, you should talk to your immigration lawyer about "downgrading" from EB2 to EB3.
EB3 India retrogression in filing date might mean, they might do the same for EB2. So, if you are current and still waiting to file I-485, it is better to do it right away.
Meanwhile, if you are waiting for your date to become current, there are some things that you can prepare yourself before your priority date becomes current. Two items that typically take longer are getting an official birth certificate for all I-485 applicants and Marriage Certificate, if relevant. Along with that, you can talk to your immigration lawyer and see if you need an affidavit for these certificates. If yes, you can get a format for that and prepare that as well.
Data Sources:
[1] December 2020 Visa Bulletin -- https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-december-2020.html
[2] Visa Bulletin information from USCIS -- https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo
[3] EB2 and EB3 Numbers are taken from -- Page 9 - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2019AnnualReport/FY19AnnualReport%20-%20TableV.pdf
[4] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.aila.org/infonet/processing-time-reports/eb-i-485-inventory/uscis-i-485-employment-inventory-statistics-7-1-18
[5] EB petitions waiting visa final Priority Dates -- https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/USCIS_FOIA_EB_backlog.pdf
[2] Visa Bulletin information from USCIS -- https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo
[3] EB2 and EB3 Numbers are taken from -- Page 9 - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2019AnnualReport/FY19AnnualReport%20-%20TableV.pdf
[4] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.aila.org/infonet/processing-time-reports/eb-i-485-inventory/uscis-i-485-employment-inventory-statistics-7-1-18
[5] EB petitions waiting visa final Priority Dates -- https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/USCIS_FOIA_EB_backlog.pdf
Ambals,
ReplyDeleteMy PD is Feb 2011, EB2-I. I applied for AOS (no downgrade) recently. In future, if EB3-I Final Action Date (FAD) remains ahead of EB2 and goes past my PD, can I then downgrade? Does it matter if I still on H1B or on EAD?
I believe both are yes. But, please check about your specific situation with an immigration lawyer.
DeleteI was reviewing https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2019AnnualReport/FY19AnnualReport%20-%20TableV.pdf and got confused why South Korea got 4454, China got 3369 while India got 2908 in-spite India is most retrogress county. Any reason for this?
ReplyDeleteYes. I am not able figure out. I saw the same. Even the previous year, it is like that.
DeleteFirstly, Ambals, what a pleasant surprise to see updates from you. Hope you & your family been well through this horrible year.
ReplyDeleteMy EB2-India PD is 11-Mar-2010, and my 140 & 485 were filed concurrently back then.
First obvious question is, per your analysis, when could my PD be current.
Second, what should I expect whenever my PD is current per the Final Action Date? Will I just get my GC one fine day in the mail, or will there be additional processing (forms/documents to be provided) given the applications have been dormant for almost a decade?
I do not intend to port from EB2 to EB3.
Assuming spillover is 10000 or more, then you will become current this FY - basically by September 2021. Once you become current or even before, you might get RFE - mostly likely to redo medical. Everything else will depend on the new administration and how they want to handle the applications.
Delete